Critical entities resilience failure indication

Abstract

The adoption of the new Directive (EU) 2022/2557 on the resilience of critical entities has raised the question of how to assess the level of resilience of these entities in relation to current security threats. Until now, approaches have focused only on assessing the resilience of critical infrastructure elements. However, the new Directive exemplifies the need to pay attention not only to the element resilience, but also and more importantly to the resilience of their owners and operators, i.e., critical entities. Based on this fact, the authors of the article created a tool for Critical Entities Resilience Failure Indication (CERFI Tool). The essence of this tool is a probabilistic algorithm that predicts the relationship between the threat intensity and the protective part of critical entity resilience through indicators (to be created by the assessors themselves). The result of this prediction is an indication of the critical point of failure of the critical entity's resilience in phases of prevention and absorption of impacts. The CERFI Tool thus contributes to increasing the safety of technically oriented infrastructures, especially those of an energy and transport nature. The paper concludes with an example of the practical application of the developed tool on a selected critical entity in the energy sector.