Verification of convection predictors for the algorithm of statistical prediction of convective precipitation

Abstract

This paper focuses on the description of the methodology of verification of convection predictors, which are implemented in the combined prediction in the Algorithm for statistical prediction of convective precipitation. The methodological part describes the algorithm of the statistical prediction of convective precipitation and the procedure for evaluating the verification of predictors. The resulting part contains the outputs from the verification of convection predictors for three main prediction categories - Convection triggering, Storm intensity and Convective cloud type. The outputs of this article will be intended for the design of a combined forecast, which is part of the Algorithm for the statistical prediction of convective precipitation. This algorithm can be used as one of the sources of more accurate predictions of convective storms, convective precipitation and dangerous phenomena as a support in the decision-making of the crisis management bodies of the region.