Evaluation of the accuracy of numerical weather prediction models

Abstract

This article is focused on numerical weather prediction models, which are publicly available on the Internet and their evaluation of the accuracy of predictions. The first part of the article deals with the basic principles of creating a weather forecast by numerical models, including an overview of selected numerical models. The various methods of evaluation of the accuracy of forecasts are described in the following part of the article; the results of which are shown in the last chapter. This article aims to bring major information on the numerical models with the greatest accuracy convective precipitation forecasts based on an analysis of 30 situations for the year 2014. These findings can be useful, especially for Crisis Management of the Zlin Region in extraordinary natural events (flash floods). © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2015.